As the 2026 FIFA World Cup reaches its quarter-final stage, the battle for the ultimate prize intensifies. With the favorites to reach the last four, according to Opta, being France, Spain, Argentina, and England, the stage is set for an exciting and unpredictable tournament. But what do the numbers tell us about these teams' chances of success? Let's take a closer look at the statistics and explore the fascinating insights they reveal.
France: The Unstoppable Force
France's ability to glide past opponents is truly remarkable. Opta measures ball carries of at least five meters, and the French squad has demonstrated an incredible nine players who have at least four productive carries, ending with either a shot or a chance created. This is a testament to their fluidity and creativity in attack. What makes this particularly fascinating is the balance between individual brilliance and collective effort. Kylian Mbappé, for instance, has been a standout performer, but he's not alone in his impact. The team's ability to create chances and convert them into goals is a true testament to their depth and quality. However, one thing that immediately stands out is the reliance on ball carries to create chances. While this has been effective, it also raises a deeper question: Can France sustain this style of play throughout the tournament?
Morocco: The Sprinting Giants
Morocco has logged the most sprints of the remaining teams, with an average of 0.75 sprints per kilometer covered. This is a testament to their physicality and intensity. What many people don't realize is that playing two of their matches in air-conditioned stadiums may have given them an advantage. Despite this, Morocco should have the physicality to cope with France. The question remains: Can they maintain this level of intensity throughout the tournament, especially against more physically dominant teams?
Spain: The Impervious Defense
Spain's average possession is within a couple of decimal places of what they averaged at Euro 2012. While this team is not as dour as their predecessors, their ownership of the ball has enabled them to have a similarly impervious defense. To put their expected goal total conceded into context, Norway have allowed at least 1.49 xG in four of their five matches. This raises a deeper question: Can Spain's defense hold up against more attacking teams in the quarter-finals?
Belgium: The High Turnover Masters
Belgium enjoys an edge in the number of high turnovers that resulted in shots (15), with their four goals from them also the top mark. This suggests that they are able to capitalize on their opponents' mistakes. However, one thing that immediately stands out is the reliance on high turnovers to create chances. While this has been effective, it also raises a deeper question: Can Belgium sustain this level of efficiency throughout the tournament, especially against more defensively solid teams?
Norway: Quality Over Quantity
Norway has taken only four shots more than Cape Verde despite playing an extra match. The average quality of their chances, as measured by expected goals, has been higher than any other team. While five games is a tiny sample, Norway's non-penalty xG per shot (0.17) is higher than any team averaged in Europe's big five leagues last season. This raises a deeper question: Can Norway maintain this level of quality and efficiency throughout the tournament, especially against more physically dominant teams?
England: The Clinical Finishers
England produced a ruthless attacking performance against Mexico, with six shots, five of which were on target, scoring three times. As they struck via two tap-ins and a penalty, their goals were deemed by Opta to be big chances, which are defined as when "a player should reasonably be expected to score". While far less clinical at converting them earlier in the tournament, England have had more of these golden opportunities than any other team. This raises a deeper question: Can England sustain this level of clinical finishing throughout the tournament, especially against more defensively solid teams?
Argentina: The Attacking Varieties
Argentina are the joint-top scorers with 14 goals. What sets them apart, however, is their attacking variety. No other team has scored as many times outside the remit of what Opta deems regular play. The defending champions can overpower opponents in many different ways. This raises a deeper question: Can Argentina maintain this level of attacking variety throughout the tournament, especially against more physically dominant teams?
Switzerland: The Direct Speedsters
Switzerland do not appear to be a particularly quick attacking team to the eye, and by the standards of the 48 sides, they are not. However, Opta's direct-speed metric, which measures "average speed of ball movement towards opponent goal line during sequence", has them as the fastest of the quarter-finalists. This raises a deeper question: Can Switzerland maintain this level of direct speed and efficiency throughout the tournament, especially against more possession-based teams?
In conclusion, the statistics reveal a fascinating picture of the quarter-finalists' strengths and weaknesses. While each team has its own unique style and approach, the question remains: Can they sustain this level of performance throughout the tournament? The battle for the ultimate prize is far from over, and the numbers suggest that the quarter-finals will be an exciting and unpredictable affair.
